Cars have been launched, testing has been done and Melbourne is fast approaching. This is always an exciting time of year for an F1 fan as anticipation builds and questions are asked about what we can expect over the next nine months.
Stable regulations should in theory make predictions a little easier (this time next year will be a completely different matter) but there are still a lot of unknowns. And the fact that this is the final year of the current rules cycle could mean that the field is closer than previous seasons as development paths near their end and potential gains are smaller.
What then can we expect as the cars hit the track for the first competitive running in Albert Park? It would be a brave man to bet against Mercedes continuing their domination of recent years. Pre-season testing showed that the W11 yet again has the pace to be ahead of the pack and the teams technical innovations such as the infamous DAS system and redesigned rear suspension, while maybe only offering marginal gains in terms of outright lap time, show that the team are still pushing as heard as ever to keep their rivals at bay. Testing times are hard to read but the team appear confident with their latest creation and should be leading the way in Australia.
Lewis Hamilton is as fired up as ever and the prospect of equalling the record of the 7 world titles of the great Michael Schumacher is surely providing him with the motivation to work ever harder to keep his run of success going and fight off young chargers like Max Verstappen and Charles LeClerc.
Team mate Valtteri Bottas needs to find the form with which he started last year if he wants to provide Lewis with a challenge from within his own team. The Valtteri 2.0 from last year did a solid job and started the season in fine form but will need to find consistency and the speed to beat Hamilton in the critical moments of the season if he is to achieve his aim of the world title.
One potential chink in Mercedes armour and a possible glimmer of hope for their rivals is the reliability issues that the manufacturer suffered in Barcelona testing. Both the main team and one of their customers Williams had engine issues which cost them track time at the test, with Williams themselves rumoured to have needed to use three engines during the test. Whether this will continue to be a problem for them once the season gets going or is something that can be rectified before Australia remains to be seen but any lost points due to engine reliability could make the job of securing a seventh consecutive title double much more difficult.
What then of Mercedes chief rivals? Ferrari’s ultimate pace remains unclear, their race pace on long runs seemed ok but not spectacular and they appeared to be down on straight line speed in testing, something which was a strength of theirs in 2019. This could be a result of adding more downforce to ensure that they are quick on all types of circuit not just the high speed ones, more downforce equals more drag, but if what we saw in Barcelona was their true pace then they should be worried because they did not look like a Mercedes challenger.
It could be that they wanted to play down their chances and not create high expectations before the season starts to avoid the embarrassment of last year when they left testing looking like the team to beat in Australia and then getting soundly beaten in the race. Only time will tell but at the moment it is difficult to avoid the thought that they may have another frustrating season ahead of them. Let us hope that this isn’t the case and they hit the ground running at Albert Park.
There could be more potential headaches for team boss Mattia Binotto as he seeks to manage a driver situation that could be divisive. Sebastian Vettel was soundly beaten last year by young team mate LeClerc and with Ferrari handing the Frenchman a new contract over the winter they have signalled where they feel their future lies. Vettel is a winner and is used to being the top man in the team and if his performances echo what we saw last season he will quickly find himself in a very uncomfortable position. Being older, more experienced and a four time world champion matters little if your younger team mate is the one getting the results. This is the last year left on Sebastian’s contract so 2020 could prove to be a pivotal one with regard to his future.
We saw in Brazil last year what can happen when two team mates won’t give each other an inch, and infighting will not aid Ferrari’s cause, especially so when Mercedes seem to have a pretty harmonious driver situation and with both drivers scoring good points. Ferrari will need to manage this very carefully to be an effective threat to the Silver Arrows.
If Ferrari can’t pose a strong threat to Mercedes then RedBull appear as though they have jumped Ferrari and become the second best team. Their testing pace in race trim seemed good and the low fuel runs that they did seemed to show some good quali pace as well. They have consistently been good at developing over the course of a season and if they are able to start the season well they may be able to push Mercedes and put some pressure on them as the season goes on.
Redbull will need Honda to continue the good work from last year where the Japanese company showed big gains over previous seasons. Winning three races was a big achievement for Honda after the difficult and embarrassing return to the sport.
In Max Verstappen RedBull have a driver who is not only fast but has been able to cut out the errors and become a more complete driver. Perhaps he’s not yet at the level of Lewis in terms of his all-round skill set but he is no longer throwing away points with silly incidents. Along with LeClerc he is one of the drivers who should be able to push Hamilton harder than anyone else has. Formula One needs RedBull to give Verstappen a machine capable of challenging for the title otherwise it could be a long season.
Alex Albon being given the second RedBull seat for 2020 after replacing Gasly half way through ‘19 shows that the team has faith in his ability to be supporting Verstappen season long, but he will need to up his game still further to be sure of keeping hold of that seat. RedBull won’t be afraid of making another change if he cannot bring his best. They suffered a lot last year with Gasly being so far back from Max and thus not having the opportunity to use different strategies to fight Mercedes, this was particularly evident in Hungary . Albon has to make sure he stays in touch with Max.
We must discuss Raving Point next because the “Pink Mercedes” as some have dubbed it ran very well in pre-season and indicated that they may have the pace to at times trouble Ferrari and RedBull. The car certainly bears a striking resemblance to last year’s title winning machine but to call it a copy is I think a little unfair. The Silverstone based squad have looked at the Mercedes aero concept and followed that same path, and that is something that makes a lot of sense for them to do.
They already use customer Mercedes engines and gearboxes so they would have had some info about the car from that and the Merc has been the car to beat so why not look at their whole design philosophy. It is not against the rules, and they have not simply taken the Mercedes designs and built the car around that. It would have been impossible to just copy the design from photographs and make it work, they have had to do their own research and make the concept work for themselves. And work it certainly seems to, much to the annoyance of some other teams. I for one hope that they can cause a stir and generate some headlines by mixing it with the big boys at least at the start of the season.
The mid field battle as always looks very tight with Renault, Apha Tauri (formerly Toro Rosso) McLaren, Alfa Romeo, Haas and Williams all looking to improve on their 2019 form.
Renault you feel are in urgent need of a good strong season this year. Rumours have been swirling around for a while regarding their long term commitment to the sport and after a 2019 that didn’t really meet expectations they must up their game. Their form was difficult to read in Barcelona testing and it remains to be seen where they will be in the pecking order come Melbourne.
Daniel Ricciardo is joined this year by the talented Esteban Ocon and this could be one of the most intriguing team mate battles this year. Ricciardo’s worth is known and he soundly beat Nico Hulkenburg in 2019 but Ocon is highly rated and hungry after a year as third driver for Mercedes.
Renault might find it tough to beat the resurgent McLaren team who had a solid winter test and appear confident in their machine going into the first race. Aside from Racing Point they look the most impressive package from the midfield and should be able to continue their improved form from last season. An unchanged driver line will help and Carlos Sainz has matured into an effective team leader since joining the Woking squad last year. In Lando Noris they have a young talent with plenty of speed and he will need to build on his impressive form from 2019 to cement his future.
The Apha Tauri team , rebranded to promote RedBull’s own clothing brand could challenge McLaren on occasion and may prove to be a problem for Renault throughout the year. They certainly have the best looking livery and will be hoping that the car goes as well as it looks to give Gasly and Kvyat the chance to build on the teams two podiums from the previous campaign.
Alfa Romeo with the ever young Kimi Raikkonen and Antonio Giovinazzi look like they may struggle a bit this year, their form tailed off in 2019 and testing didn’t suggest that they have found a lot of speed. Hopefully I’m wrong and Kimi can get some good results in what could be his final season in the top flight. They may find themselves locked in a fight with the Haas team who must improve after a terrible season last time. You wonder how much longer Gene Haas will continue to bankroll the team if improvements are not made this year.
Which brings us to Williams. Evidence suggests that they are likely to be at the back of the field again but should have the pace to stick with the pack and fight for the lower positions. This may not sound like much but after a 2019 where for much of the time the team were just circulating and unable to challenge this would be an improvement.
Being the very first car out of the pit lane on the first day of winter testing was the team showing that the disastrous start to last season hasn’t been repeated. Respectability and regaining some confidence are what they must focus on this year. On the driving front the well-funded Nicolas Latifi joins George Russell and should be more of a challenge than Robert Kubica managed last year.
That then is the teams but we also have two new events to be excited about this year. The return of the historic Zandvort circuit in Holland will provide Verstappen with the opportunity to race on home soil and provide a great atmosphere.
And if the world wide Corona virus epidemic allows we will also see an F1 race for the first time in Vietnam at the new Hanoi circuit. So there is lots to look forward to and many talking points to be discussed through the 2020 season. Bring on Melbourne!
My F1 talk 