Welcome to the preview for the new F1 season that is almost upon us. In one week we will start getting some answers to the many questions that we all have about the competitive order of the teams and whether anyone can give the mighty Merc’s a fight for championship honors.
The cars have been unveiled, testing has been done and drivers have got themselves into peak physical condition but what kind of season are we in for? Lets assess the main talking points form the winter and look ahead to what’s in store.
HAMILTON STAYS AT MERCEDES FOR ONE MORE YEAR
Yes 7 times world champ Lewis Hamilton stays with Mercedes for his potential record setting eighth title but although this would have seemed like a forgone conclusion a year ago getting the deal done appeared to be a tough and lengthly process that left some wondering if it would actually happen. I personally thought it would always be sorted out but it was strange that it took until February to get done. And when news did come through it was of a one year deal!
This isn’t what you would expect of a reigning world champion and the team that have won the last seven titles and left some wondering where it left the relationship that has seemed so strong up until this point. I am sure that the everyday working relationship between driver and team is fine and will be as strong as ever this year but it does point to a potential difference in opinion in where both parties see themselves going forwards.
On the one hand it could be said that one year suits both as it gives Lewis the opportunity to get title number eight and then decide it he feels the desire to carry on into the new rules cycle. At the same time Mercedes as a team are left with the chance to decide where they want to go with drivers in the coming years and have the freedom to bring in fresh talent if they wish. George Russel did an outstanding job in Bahrain two last season and showed the team and the world that he is ready for a step up to the big time.
On the other hand though it does seem to me like a one year deal is a bit of a compromise between the two parties and signals to me that neither side really got what they wanted out of the negotiations and have very differing ideas on what the future should hold. Hamilton and Mercedes as a company have jointly set up an organization to look at and promote diversity and equality which they are both investing in so clearly there are signs of some form of future collaboration but on a racing front both sides seem to be keeping their options open.
Shouldn’t Mercedes want to be keeping their star driver and shouldn’t Hamilton want to stay with the best team heading into an exciting new ere for the sport? We will see over the next nine months how this plays out but with Bottas also out of contract at the end of this season we may see a very different Mercedes team in 2022.
THE FRONT OF THE PACK
You would be crazy to bet against the Mercs being the class of the field right? Well yeah you would, we all know what they have done in the past and the level of the team never seems to drop. But this year we just may hopefully see the team facing a real, season long challenge from RedBull. The team from Milton Keynes seemed to have a very strong test in Bahrain last week, they showed good consistent pace, reliability and their car didn’t seem to be as nervous and twitchy as last years machine was. Added to this Mercedes had technical issues that limited track time, a spin for Hamilton and a rear end that lacked the stability they enjoyed in 2020.
Lets not get carried away here, Mercedes always come back from problems and I don’t for one minute think that they have lost their performance but the fact that they have some issues and RedBull look like starting the season strongly should give us all hope that we may see a real battle this year. The pre-season test being in Bahrain is also a good indicator of performance as it is the same track where round one will take place, making testing times a little more meaningful.
BEHIND THE LEADING TWO
So Merc and RedBull will likely lead the way but who will be behind them? It is unlikely to be Ferrari as they as they seem to be some way behind the leaders. They have made gains on the engine front after big losses in that area last year (that is a topic we could discuss all day long) but it is not enough to pressure the leaders and it certainly looks like they will have another tough season ahead of them. You have ti feel that they need to just through all their eggs in the 2022 basket and focus on the new rules. That would mean more pain this year but the future is where their chance of progress is not this year.
I do worry about Ferrari as a team because they have gone back to that type of organization that they had before the Todt, Schumacher, Brawn and Byrne era where they lacked any real direction and seemingly didn’t have the leaders to steer the ship in the right way. I like Mattia Binotto but I am not convinced that he is the man to guide them back to world title success. I hope I am wrong because F1 is always better when Ferrari are fighting at the top of the table and when they get it right they can be a force as we have seen before. Time will tell but for this year it would best not to get out hopes up.
Whatever the performance of the red cars though there will be plenty of interest in the team as Carlos Sainz joins LeClerc and that pairing will be one of the most fascinating of the year for me. Sainz has plenty of talent and is itching to get his chance in a top team after things didn’t work out in the RedBull program. He doesn’t make silly errors, is very smart and has great race craft so anyone expecting him to be LeClerc’s “wing man” should be disappointed. The partnership could be, and should be a great one but keeping the drivers in line may prove a challenge at times. I for one cant wait to see how that develops.
If Ferrari are not going to be the third best team then it seems that McLaren may continue their upward trend and fill that spot. They were also looking good in the test and they are equipped with the Mercedes powerplant now. The pace of the car was good and I would be very surprised if we do not see some very good results from them early on. In terms of driver line up they have the two drivers whose relationship will be just as intriguing as the Ferrari pair. Lando Norris had a great relationship with Sainz and that was great for PR and social media but I feel that there is a real possibility that it will not be as brotherly with Ricciardo. Daniel will want to make his mark on the team straight away and he is the one with the race winning experience to match his ability.
Looking at the body language between them during all the PR and media stuff pre season it hasn’t looked as relaxed and comfortable, even I would say with a hint of tension in the air. This will be fine for Riccciardo because its nothing new to him but for Norris this will be the first time at this level that he has faced this situation and he is likely to have a fight on his hands this year. I am certain he can handle it and he definitely has the talent but nevertheless it will be a tough year I think. It may be that the lack of chumminess between the drivers will propel the team forward even further. An exciting season ahead for McLaren I think and I hope to see them on the podium several times.
THE MID FIELD
The midfield is likely to be where the closest action is again this year. Ferrari are likely to feature in this group but I would expect Aston Martin to head up the midpack with Alpine in close attendance.
It is great to have Aston back in F1 as a team, I think as a brand they will be good for and benefit from the sport immensely. Sebastian Vettel signing as team mate to Stroll can only be a good thing, his championship winning experience will be invaluable. Whether or not he will regain his best form we will have to wait and see, but personally I think a change of environment and a team that has welcomed him with open arms will invigorate him. The Ferrari situation of the last couple of years clearly wore him down and sapped his spirit and I expect the full story of that will only come to light in the fullness of time but it was cleat that Seb was pretty unwanted last year and that is not a scenario where anyone will get the best out of themselves. Seb and Stroll should actually make a good pairing and if the team can build on what they did last year as Racing Point I see no reason why they cannot be “best of the rest”.
Alpine is an interesting one because as Renault they have under achieved in the last couple of years and clearly have some way to go before they are back at their best. The rebranding, along with the arrival of Davide Brivio from Suzuki and the return of Fernando Alonso will have gone some way to pushing the team on and the management restructure will also have an effect. The car seemed pretty good in testing and although no spectacular times were set both Alonso and Ocon gave some positive comments. Whatever happens with this team the presence of Alonso will garner plenty of interest, his return will be another big talking throughout the year.
Alpha Tauri will also feature in this midfield fight and if Gasly can carry through his excellent form from 2020 he should collect plenty of points for the junior RedBull team. Exciting young team mate Yuki Tsunoda has shown plenty of flair in the junior formula and his debut season will I’m sure be entertaining. He has talent so we should expect some notable drives from him.
THE BACK OF THE PACK
The tail end will also be a tight fight and these teams will have to try and make sure that on those crazy days when the race is turned on its head they can find a way to get some points. On normal days this will be a tough ask for the likes of Williams, Haas and Alfa Romeo.
Haas and Alfa will benefit from the new updated Ferrari power unit but this alone will not give them the means to dig their way into the mid field. Haas look as though they may be propping up the back row of the grid and making progress will be difficult. I expect a tough season from them, particularly with two rookies in the car.
Mick Schumacher, Michael’s son is of course another big point of interest this season and he will face a lot of pressure and media scrutiny, in this respect being in a car like the Haas with low expectations will be helpful to him. His objective should be to learn as much a she can, beat his team mate and not make too many errors. If he is given time I believe he will do well. I look forward to watching him race and as everyone else I think it is such a shame that his father is not able to be there with him and see him perform.
Nikita Mazipin will be in the other car and his dad has put money into the team through their new sponsorship deal so his presence is important from a team survival point of view. Nikita has been fast but erratic so far in his career and has had a few notable controversial moments. One of these was off track last year when he appeared in a social media post acting inappropriately with a young lady. I feel that he is lucky to have survived that episode so far and will need to hold himself to a much higher standard if he is to have a long career in F1.
I would expect Alfa Romeo and Williams to be just ahead of the Haas drivers but they are will also find it tough and will probably have to be content with beating each other to satisfy their competitive needs. The coming years and the new regs are where all these teams will find their form and they must concentrate on starting that new era in as good a position as possible. Redirecting focus to 2022 very early will the key for them.
NEW RULES
As we know the major new rules revamp is put back to next year but the teams still do have some changes to contend with. There is an estimated 10 %reduction in aero performance aimed at slowing the cars down after last years record breaking speeds. This reduction comes mainly from the floor and diffuser area and it will be interesting to see how teams cope with this and if the car are a bit more of a handful as a result. Mercedes for one seemed a lot less stable in the Bahrain test so lets see how that works out.
Another change effects Friday practice which has now been cut to two one hour sessions. This is to try and give teams less opportunity to fine tune and force them to get out on track more so that we avoid the instances of empty circuits during the Friday sessions. This could work well and will change the dynamic of practice to a degree but I don’t think it will make a huge difference to the grand scheme of things. Teams are adaptable and will make it work.
We will also see a some point Saturday sprint races trialed this season. The rumour is that this will happen at three events. Here will see qualifying on a Friday afternoon to set the grid for the Saturday sprint race and then the main race grid being decided form that. Formula One is looking at ways at developing and I applaud that but the sprint race idea I am not overly keen on. But I will talk about that more in future posts. For now I guess we should withhold judgement.
We are all set then for another exciting season of racing and it will kick off this weekend in Bahrain. It feels good after a long winter to get the season going and I cant wait to see what happens. Enjoy the race everyone.
My F1 talk 